COVID-19 and Nursing Homes: National Updates and Early Evidence on the Second Wave

Evidence from the initial coronavirus outbreaks within the United States has shown that the fate of nursing home residents is tightly linked to the severity of the virus within the nursing home’s state. With a “second wave” of COVID-19 in many southern states and a host of policy changes, it is worth investigating whether the evidence suggests this vulnerable group is now better protected.

COVID-19 and Nursing Homes: Understanding State-Level Variation

Nursing homes have borne the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic, but recently released data show that the severity of outbreaks in these facilities has varied substantially across the United States. Some have argued that policy decisions have driven the variation in outcomes observed in nursing homes, while a competing theory is that nursing home outbreaks largely mirror the surrounding area.

COVID-19 and Nursing Homes: Examining New National Data

The first widely reported COVID-19 deaths in the United States were nursing home patients in Washington State on February 28. Numerous accounts of similar outbreaks soon followed, including 47 deaths at a nursing home in Minnesota (as of April 30), 54 deaths at a nursing home in Massachusetts (as of May 4), and 81 deaths at a facility in New Jersey (as of May 27).

MGA’s Alex Brill on CNBC’s Squawk Box

“We want the program to work and I think that sadly what we’re seeing is that the program is working quite well. And I say sadly because we are seeing tens of millions of people process through that system and we’re going to continue to see that I think for the next few weeks as the backlogs in certain states get worked through…”

New Analysis Situates COVID-19 Alongside 1918 Pandemic, Predicts 12 Million–26 Million Hospitalizations

A new report released today by Matrix Global Advisors (MGA) finds that COVID-19 is likely as severe as the 1918 pandemic, the worst pandemic in the twentieth century. MGA evaluated COVID-19 data using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework (PSAF) and found that the current pandemic’s clinical severity (how sick the virus makes people) and transmissibility (how contagious the virus is) are the highest measurable by that tool.